5Years of TEOTWAWKI?

5 Years of TEOTWAWKI

Posted on October 25, 2011 by suburbanprep
I have often thought about what 5 years of TEOTWAWKI would look like. It is not pretty.
The most likely causes of a long-term TEOTWAWKI at this time include:

• Magnetic Pole Switch
• Super Volcano leading to Nuclear Winter
• EMP Attack or Nuclear War
• Global Flu Pandemic
• Global Economic Meltdown and Multi-year Economic Depression
• Global Drought and Famine caused by climate change
• Global Oil Shortages due to lessening production or interruption due to war

The last two items are distinct possibilities and keep me awake at night. The sovereign debt problems in USA and Europe have a real possibility of producing a multi-year Economic Depression. And we have seen the price of food and fuel increase to the point of causing starvation, riots and government crises around the world.
If TEOTWAWKI comes about, here is how I see it unfolding:

The Year Before TEOTWAWKI:

• Lots of government interventions into market conditions
• Daily news events about food and fuel shortages
• Unemployment crosses 10% and continues to rise every month
• Crime increases as people become more desperate
• People begin to hoard food, fuel, and weapons
• Massive devaluation of financial assets
• Massive inflation of essential goods
• Gold and silver prices rise rapidly as people retreat from paper currency
• Runs on banks will occur and most banks will close

Year One after TEOTWAWKI:

• Unemployment reaches 25% and continues to grow
• Schools close
• Essential Government Services (trash pickup, street lights, drivers licenses, deed registration) are interrupted
• Emergency services are overwhelmed (police do not respond to non-violent crimes)
• Riots and Looting are wide spread
• People freeze in their home for lack of heating energy
• People starve as food production and food delivery are interrupted
• Crime become wide-spread with gangs starting to take over sections of some cities
• WROL (Without Rule of Law) becomes the new norm
• Massive flow of refugees come out of the cities and into the country-side
• Government and charitable organizations set up bread lines, but are likely overwhelmed
• Access to prescription medicine will stop, as move pharmacies are cleaned out
• Hospitols will be overwhelmed and likely severely limiting their services
• Mass die off of the population occurs over the winter as food and heating fuel are depleted
• Personal security will become a 24 hour concern (everyone will be carrying a gun or wish they had a gun)
• Your family will need to hunker down and live off of your long-term food pantry
• Most of your time will be devoted to obtain water, attending to sanitation, and defending your homestead
• Your children will need to become home schooled, as schools will likely shutdown
• Internet and phone services are interrupted or fail
• If power grid survives, expect frequent black-outs and brown-outs
• Communities will need to form local militias to maintain order and reduce lawlessness

Year Two after TEOTWAWKI:

• Revolutions and war are likely occur in poorer countries as government institutions break down
• Governments that not fail are likely to instituted martial law and severe emergency restrictions
• Governments will nationalize certain segments of private industry, such as fuel and energy production, transportation, and banking
• Governments will start work-for-food programs (dig ditches for a loaf of bread)
• Even if you had your own fuel storage, you will likely run out of fuel for power generators and vehicles
• Governments will issue new currencies to align with new economic realities (expect current currencies to be greatly degraded)
• Likely, WROL will continue and you will need to be concerned about family security on a 24 hour daily basis (traveling away from home will be highly risky)
• Communities will survive only if they can form their own armed militia
• Families will consolidate and double up in the same homestead
• Major cities far from food producing regions will dramatically decrease in size
• You will need to resume your own food production, as your long-term pantry will start to depleated
• You will need to store and preserve food in a manner similar to what was done in 1800′s (canning, dehydrating, pickling, root cellar, salting, butchering meat at home, grind your own grains)
• Your children will likely need to continue to be home schooled
• You will need to chop wood by hand to prepare for winter heating
• Some barter will resume at the local level
• Those with deep multi-year food pantry, deep stocks of ammo and garden seeds, having their own farm land, having their own farm animals, and having gold and silver will be considered the new wealthy

Year Three after TEOTWAWKI:

• You are living off of your own food production from gardening, hunting, livestock, and forging
• Gold and silver will be the normal currency for exchange of goods and services
• Home-based businesses will become the dominate economic force
• Populations reach a nature equilibrium with local food production
• The sense of village returns has people will resume local travel for trade and barter
• Local schools might resume by the efforts of families to band together to run their own school
• Crime and security will continue to be a constant worry, but the survivors at this point will likely be armed and then well-practiced with firearms
• You will be considered middle-classed if you have two full meals each day and a warm bed to sleep in

Year Four after TEOTWAWKI:

• Currency-based economies might start to return on small scale
• Smaller factories might begin production of basic supplies, such as building materials
• Local power grids might resume if energy supplies are available
• Travel by horse and buggy will be popular (those with horses will be considered wealthy)
• Selfdom will return to poorer countries and sharecropping will return in developed countries
• Traditional skills will re-emerge, such as blacksmiths, midwives, ranching, herding, farming, tailoring, weaving, etc.
• Martial law might end
• Governments will attempt to re-institute taxes, but in a limited manner
• Phone services might return

Year Five after TEOTWAWKI:

• Peace and security reaches an equilibrium
• Wars will end, if no other reason than the depletion of war supplies
• New governments will form, some of which might be highly repressive
• New economic normal will center around farms, ranches, and small villages
• Schools will resume but run by locals villages
• Life expectancy will reduce from 78 years to 68 years without advanced medicines and expensive medical care

Let us all hope this never comes to pass. TEOTWAWKI will be unpleasant and cruel, even for those who are prepared. It will be the new dark ages. We should all work hard to avoid TWEOTWAWKI and prepare for its possibility.